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Inferring probability densities from expert opinion

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dc.contributor.authorGzyl, Henrykspa
dc.contributor.authorter Horst, Enriquespa
dc.contributor.authorMolina, Germánspa
dc.contributor.orcidter Horst, Enrique [0000-0001-5153-1475]
dc.contributor.orcidMolina, Germán [0000-0003-4693-6907]
dc.contributor.scopusGzyl, Henryk [6701665186]
dc.contributor.scopuster Horst, Enrique [25655619900]
dc.contributor.scopusMolina, Germán [15728099800]
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-21T22:23:08Z
dc.date.available2023-06-21T22:23:08Z
dc.date.issued2017-03
dc.description.abstractenglishWhen experts are asked to assess a situation, they often express their opinions providing estimates of the probability of observing the occurrence of a random variable in given intervals, sometimes up to a range of values, rather than simply providing point estimates. The problem we face is how to translate that expert opinion into probability distributions. We examine a novel way of solving that problem by making use of the maximum entropy method in the data to deal with expert opinions expressed with or without uncertainty bands. Our method allows us to unveil underlying probability distributions driving expert opinions expressed with and without uncertainty.eng
dc.description.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5153-1475
dc.description.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4693-6907
dc.description.scopushttps://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=6701665186
dc.description.scopushttps://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=25655619900
dc.description.scopushttps://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=15728099800
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2016.11.006
dc.identifier.eissn1872-8480
dc.identifier.instnameinstname:Colegio de Estudios Superiores de Administración – CESA
dc.identifier.issn0307-904X
dc.identifier.reponamereponame:Biblioteca Digital – CESA
dc.identifier.repourlrepourl:https://repository.cesa.edu.co/
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10726/5102
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier Inc.
dc.relation.citationendpage320
dc.relation.citationstartpage306
dc.relation.citationvolume43
dc.relation.ispartofjournalApplied Mathematical Modelling
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.localAbierto (Texto Completo)
dc.subject.proposalMaximum entropy method
dc.subject.proposalMaximum entropy with errors in the data
dc.subject.proposalProbability elicitation with uncertainty
dc.titleInferring probability densities from expert opinioneng
dc.typearticle
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_71e4c1898caa6e32
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.redcolhttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion

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