The determinants of bankruptcy and default of real sector companies in Colombia for a differentiated government policy (Borrador de administración No. 32)

Abstract

Colombia is experiencing a new economic recession. It is depth and duration will affect the stability of Colombian companies. The IMF has already projected a negative economic growth of 0.3 percent for the GDP in 2009. Regarding these expectations, the dominant interpretations for analyzing the fragility of companies follow analytic models that are essentially of closed economies, which have inspired the analytical instruments. Through binomial Logit regression techniques, several general econometric models have been developed to establish the probability of bankruptcy and the probability of default for companies, as well as specific models to determine these probabilities in sectors and subsectors.